On the Nexus between Exchange Rate and Stock Price in Nigeria
Purpose: This paper investigates the nature and direction of the relationship between exchange rates and stock prices in Nigeria. Methodology: Autoregressive distributed Lag (ARDL) model was employed. While ARDL Bounds test was adopted to determine the short-run and long-run relationship between exchange rates and stock prices, Granger causality test was conducted to determine the direction of causality between the two variables. Time series data spanning 33 years were collected on stock prices, Nominal Exchange Rates (NER), Money Supply (MSS), and Interest Rates (INT) from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin and World Development Indicator (WDI). Findings: We provide empirical evidence that exchange rates, interest rates and the global financial crisis were negatively related to stock prices both in the short-run and long-run while the impact of money supply differs. The Granger causality test revealed a unidirectional causality running from stock prices to exchange rates in the long run. Practical implications: Nigerian authorities should adopt appropriate policies that will enhance the performance of the companies that are listed in the stock market so as to strengthen the exchange rate for Nigeria. Originality/value: The Nigerian stock market plays a significant role in the growth and development process of the Nigerian economy. Even so, the extent to which the stock market contributes to the Nigerian economic progress still depends on the behaviours of the foreign exchange rate. This has prompted researchers to investigate the relationship between stock prices and exchange rates. However, there has been lack of agreement on the nature and direction of the relationship.